WASHINGTON − After months of deciphering numerous polls, up-and-down betting markets and a historic gender hole, the 2024 election is right here − and we’ll quickly know whether or not Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump would be the subsequent president.
Greater than 78 million folks voted early, and at the least as many are anticipated to move in individual to the polls Tuesday to determine a razor-close election prone to come all the way down to seven prime battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.
Late-counted mail ballots, notably in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, imply we would not know the winner on election night time.
It caps a wild dash to Election Day between Trump, a twice-impeached and 4 instances indicted former president, and Harris, the sitting vp who solely launched her marketing campaign in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out. The race has seen two assassination makes an attempt focusing on Trump.
Listed here are six issues to look at on Election Day that may very well be instrumental in deciding whether or not Harris or Trump wins:
Signal-up for Your Vote: Textual content with the USA TODAY elections workforce.
How huge will the gender hole be?
The 2024 race way back became the “boys versus women” election, with polls displaying Harris performing considerably higher amongst girls and Trump amongst males.
Harris is vying to turn into the nation’s first feminine president. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 14 to 18 discovered Harris main nationally 53%-36% with feminine voters and Trump main by about the identical margin, 53%-37%, with male voters.
As a result of girls traditionally vote at barely increased charges than males, the gender dynamic may give Harris an edge. Emphasizing the abortion battle post-Roe v. Wade, the Harris marketing campaign has banked on successful feminine voters by giant numbers to assist carry Harris to victory.
Democrats are inspired by early-voting turnout amongst girls by which they outpaced males by about 9 share factors nationally, roughly the identical margin because the 2020 election when Biden defeated Trump.
Will Trump’s bro vote come via?
To beat Harris’ dominance with girls voters, Trump has focused an oft-overlooked voting bloc: younger males who lack faculty levels.
Trump’s appearances at UFC fights and a school soccer sport. His Podcast interviews with Joe Rogan and web celebrities and influencers Adin Ross, Theo Von and Logan Paul. His rollout of a Trump-branded sneaker. Trump’s embrace of wrestling icon Hulk Hogan.
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All of those actions − and the in-your-face “machoness” displayed on the marketing campaign path − have been geared toward a slice of the citizens the Trump marketing campaign believes can assist ship the previous president the election: male voters underneath 50 who have been undecided within the lead-up to the election that make up about 11% of the citizens throughout the battleground states.
Many of those voters are thought of low-information, low-propensity voters who don’t carefully observe each transfer in presidential elections and do not at all times vote. Trump wants them to prove.
A silver surge for Harris?
Democrats haven’t carried seniors as a voting bloc in a presidential election since Al Gore in 2020, however polling suggests Harris may accomplish that this 12 months because of older girls.
Some have known as it a possible “silver surge” for Harris and the “granny hole.”
Within the October USA TODAY/Suffolk College ballot, Harris narrowly led voters 65 or older 46%-44% over Trump nationally. An AARP national poll from late September discovered Harris forward 54%-42% over Trump amongst senior girls. Rising prices and defending Social Safety and Medicare are amongst senior girls’s prime priorities, AARP discovered. But for many so is abortion − maybe remembering an America once they had better reproductive rights than their daughters and granddaughters.
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A shocking Des Moines Register/Mediacom ballot launched over the weekend discovered Harris main Trump in reliably pink Iowa by three share factors thanks partially to a unprecedented hole amongst senior girls − one that might propel Harris to victory if it performs out within the Midwest battlegrounds.
The ballot discovered Harris main senior girls in Iowa by a large 63%-28% margin and senior males 47% to 45%. The ballot additionally discovered Harris main amongst unbiased feminine voters 57%-29%.
Will Trump peel off Black and Latino voters?
Polling suggests the Trump marketing campaign has made inroads in peeling off some Black and Latino voters − two Democratic strongholds − by focusing on youthful male voters in each teams.
If Trump expands his share of the Black vote by even a small sliver in city facilities comparable to Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, then Harris to win would wish to make it up by constructing upon Democrats’ current positive factors amongst white college-educated voters in suburbs.
In 2020, Black voters supported Biden over Trump 92%-8%, in line with exit polls, whereas Latino voters backed Biden 65%-32%. The October USA TODAY/Suffolk poll discovered Harris main Black voters by a narrower 72%-17% margin. A nationwide survey of Latino voters final week from Florida Worldwide College discovered Harris forward 57%-33% with Latino voters, regaining some floor she had misplaced.
Harris leads Trump 84%-16% amongst Black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan, each underperforming Biden’s margins, in line with polling from Marist Faculty final week. In Wisconsin, Marist discovered Harris has help from 63% of non-whites whereas Biden had help from 73% in 2020.
But the polls had Harris narrowly main all three states − as a result of she is polling higher than Biden with white voters: main Trump 51%-47% with white voters in Pennsylvania, 51%-48% in Michigan and 50%-48% in Wisconsin. It suggests Harris may offset slippage amongst voters of shade by increasing margins with white voters in suburbs.
A Puerto Rican backlash?
Some Puerto Rican voters have rallied round Harris after comic Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of rubbish” at a current Trump rally at New York’s Madison Sq. Backyard.
May the backlash be sturdy sufficient to tilt the election in Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania boasts a rising inhabitants of greater than 1 million Hispanic voters – 615,000 who’re anticipated to vote – together with a big group of Puerto Rican voters in Allentown, the state’s third largest metropolis.
Harris leads Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64%-30%, in line with a ballot launched Sunday by Noticias Univision and YouGov, and he or she leads Puerto Rican voters within the state 67%-27%. The ballot additionally discovered most Pennsylvania Latinos, together with Puerto Ricans, have been offended by Hinchliffe’s joke – 67% of respondents stated it was “extra racist than humorous,” together with 71% of Puerto Ricans.
Harris campaigned in Allentown on Monday as a part of a day of touring throughout Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, probably the most of any battleground. With a detailed final result in Pennsylvania anticipated, the state’s Puerto Ricans may play a giant position.
Will the ‘blue wall’ maintain type or cut up?
As Harris and Trump attempt to safe the wanted 270 electoral votes to win the election, the primary place to look is the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
The three Rust Belt state have voted as a bloc in each presidential election since 1988, with one of many presidential candidates sweeping all three. Biden gained every in 2020 after Trump flipped the three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016.
If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states Tuesday, then she would possible win the election even when she loses all 4 Solar Belt battleground states − North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That is assuming Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, the place she is polling forward, and all different states she is closely favored to win. Harris would win the Electoral Faculty 270-268 on this situation.
However for Trump, a victory in any of the “blue wall” states − however notably the most important prize, Pennsylvania − would open a number of paths for him to safe attain 270 by pairing that win with victories within the Solar Belt states, the place he has typically polled stronger.
For instance, if Trump carries Pennsylvania – however loses Wisconsin and Michigan – he would win 271-267 within the Electoral Faculty if he additionally wins three of the Solar Belt states.
Below this situation, Harris would wish to offset a Pennsylvania loss by carrying at the least two Solar Belt states. It will imply Trump may lose one in all both Georgia or North Carolina – which each have 16 electoral votes – and nonetheless win.
Attain Joey Garrison on X, previously Twitter, @joeygarrison
( headline and story edited by our employees and is printed from a syndicated feed.)
